- In: education, Residential
- Posted By: Jeffrey Veffer
- Comments: 0
Click on link below to start podcast......
Slow start to Toronto Real estate spring market?
Jeffrey · Slow start to Toronto Real estate spring market?
Jeffrey
I’m here again with Patrick Rocca, and if you’re in the Davisville, Mount Pleasant, Leaside area, he doesn’t need any introduction. But for those who don’t know Patrick, Patrick, why don’t you just give a quick intro to our listeners?
Patrick
Thanks for that intro, Jeff. Happy New Year, everybody. And it’s Patrick Rocca from Bosley Real Estate here in Midtown Leaside area on Vanderhoof Avenue.
I’m one of the top agents in the area. I’ve been working in this area for over 30 years, and I call this area home.
Jeffrey
Yeah, and that’s kind of an interesting thing. A lot of real estate agents do operate outside the areas where they live, and you’ve lived in Davisville, Leaside for well over 30 years. So maybe you could talk about how that gives you a bit of an advantage when it comes to the real estate in this area.
Patrick
Well, I like to think it gives me an advantage because I mean, it’s very important when you’re working with a realtor that you work with someone who knows the area, knows the community, knows what’s happening in terms of the developments, knows the schools, knows all that sort of stuff. Unfortunately, a lot of people go the different route of hiring someone that will give them the best rate and the highest price, and that’s not always the case. But having someone that’s local is really important because I was just talking with some people last week, and they were talking to an out-of-area agent, and I quickly explained to them, I said, they were asking me the benefit of working with me and obviously being local and knowing everything, and they didn’t even know that there’s a development going to be happening in their backyard.
I promptly told them that, and they were like, oh, we didn’t know. I’m like, well, I’m sure the other agent never told you that either, but I knew. So just little things like that that are somewhat important, I would think.
Jeffrey
Yeah, and as we see more and more development, as we get more and more housing proposals, as we know there’s a bit of a housing situation in the GTA, those type of things are going to be very, very important to people. If they’re going to be staying for a number of years, you do definitely want to know about the developments that are going to be coming up in the area that could effectively affect your housing prices.
Patrick
Absolutely. I have a couple that called me on the weekend from Chicago. They referred to me looking in the area, and they picked a bunch of properties that they wanted to see, and we promptly whittled the properties down because of high rises that were going to be built next door or in the vicinity and traffic patterns and all that sort of stuff.
So yeah, it’s important. I mean, it never ceases to amaze me when I go to meet people to sell their houses, and they didn’t use me to buy the house, but when they’re selling there, they’re using me, and they’re like, when we bought this, we didn’t know it was a busy street, or our agent never told us it was a busy street. I mean, it’s just stuff like that just boggles my mind, right?
Jeffrey
Yeah, absolutely. And I know people who do more due diligence when they’re buying a car than buying a house. As you could expect, a house is usually the biggest investment people make and the type of thing where it’s just not as easy often to sell a house as it is to sell a car.
Patrick
Yeah, I mean, buying a car. I mean, I see people do more due diligence buying a stereo or some sort of audio system than they do, which is a fraction of the price. It is crazy.
I mean, I’m not a big fan of agents that are working out of area. I mean, I see it time and time again, agents that are from Toronto, they’ll go to Brampton, or they’ll go to Etobicoke, or they’re going to areas where they just don’t know the market, and it’s not good for the client. It’s just not something I just wouldn’t do.
I would put them in touch with someone who’s local.
Jeffrey
I absolutely agree. And as we’re talking about the GTHA, the stats came out for December from Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. And overall, looking at them, they look about flat.
The price looks about the same, sales look about the same. But let me know, is there anything underneath those numbers that might be a bit different than what people see on the surface?
Patrick
Well, it was interesting. I mean, towards the end of last year, we had a blip. I mean, when I say a blip, a good blip.
I mean, November, for me personally, was one of my best Novembers in my 30-odd years. It was very busy. There were some last-minute shoppers, as we say.
There were deals happening. So, I mean, it was a very positive end to the year. And the numbers, I mean, they were healthy.
I mean, they were, you know, last year, when I say last year, the year before 2023, you know, you could have shot a cannon off in November and not hit anybody in the housing market. I mean, this year was totally different. So, does that mean that prices went up?
Prices didn’t necessarily go up. I mean, they remained stable. But there buying in November and December understood that, you know what, there was some good, there was value there, and there were deals to be had.
And that’s fairly typical every year. I mean, now we’re into the spring market, where things, you know, hopefully will start to pick up. We’re starting to see some statistics over the first three weeks where things are picking up.
But it’s still, it’s been an interesting start to the year. I mean, we’ve, it has not been, in my opinion, as busy as I thought it would be. We’re seeing sales, but not, we’re doing a lot of evaluations, but people seem to be almost like they’re in a pause.
I’ve had several people that were supposed to be listing this month, early February. Some are now putting it off till March, for various reasons, not necessarily, you know, all the reasons that people think, you know, such as rates and, you know, the election and, you know, the disaster that our government is right now, federally. And Trump, of course, I mean, I just, those haven’t been the reasons why people are sort of stalling.
It’s, it’s just personal, which I find interesting. It’s always a good time. I mean, if you look at the statistics in the first three weeks, I mean, the percentage of listings that we’re selling over asking, they’ve gone up.
I mean, it went from like, in the first week, 27% were selling over asking, then it was 29%. Now it’s 51%. So, I mean, you’re starting to see property selling over asking, but there’s also some weird stuff.
So, I mean, it’s not, it hasn’t been the pickup to the January market, like I expect it. So, it’ll be interesting to see what happens in February.
Jeffrey
Yeah. And those are two things I was going to ask about, you know, rates, as well as the US election. Typically, when you think of the market, you think those are two really big drivers.
But maybe, you know, in this area, maybe it’s not as big a factor as some people think.
Patrick
Well, I mean, rates, rates are a given. I mean, they’re coming down. I mean, it is what it is.
And I mean, if you keep waiting, I mean, it’s a federal analogy. I mean, you can’t, you can’t predict the bottom. So, are you waiting for rates to bottom out?
I mean, that’s foolish because as rates go down, prices go up. That’s just the way it is. So, I mean, you’re better to get in now and lock into a variable and then maybe lock in when rates go, you know, you know, hit the bottom whenever that may be.
The Trump election, I mean, I don’t know how much of a factor that is in the housing market. I mean, you know, prices are stable, you know, default rates are low, interest rates are low. I don’t see his tariffs affecting the housing market.
I think people that are dialled into the market, you know, they’re already committed. So, I just don’t see that. I think there’s going to be some bumps in the road with what or what he won’t do on February 1st.
I think the bigger driving factor is, you know, we now have a provincial election, which is painful. And then, like I said, I mean, our government has been a gong show since last year. Well, I mean, it’s been a gong show longer than that.
But I mean, if you go back to, you know, before Christmas and the proroguing of government and now there’s nothing happening and it’s just, you know, when we need stuff to happen, when we need a strong stance, you know, so there’s people that feel maybe a little uncomfortable and they’re kind of nervous. So, I think that, I think federally, there’s more concern than there is. I mean, provincially, I think it’s a foregone conclusion.
I think Ford will get in again. I just, you know, federally, though, we’re such a disaster that, I mean, I think there is some nervousness there.
Jeffrey
Yeah. And that touches on an interesting point that a lot of what we see in the market is really driven by emotion. And we saw it back in, you know, 2021 and 22.
And we’ve seen it in earlier years as well. Although, you know, we look at statistics and we look at numbers and we say, rationally, people, you know, they should be getting into the market because even if the rates drop, like you said, prices are going to rise. But a lot of what drives this, especially in this area, are emotions.
And so, how do you, as an agent, really help your clients, whether they’re buying or selling, try to take the emotion out of that transaction?
Patrick
Well, that’s the hardest part, right? I mean, you know, emotion is the number one driver in real estate, whether you’re buying. I mean, you know, you can see it in a buyer’s eyes when they walk into a house.
It’s like, you know, a deer in the headlights. You can tell they want that house, right? So, emotionally, it’s hard from a buyer’s standpoint.
From a seller’s standpoint, it’s, I mean, really, it’s trying to educate your client. I mean, we’re still dealing with clients that, and we’re seeing it. And I’m talking to an agent this morning who said that she’s getting tons of calls from people that, you know, bought in 2022.
Well, I mean, if you bought in 2022, you bought at the peak, and your property’s not worth what it was in 2022. So, I mean, you have to educate your people. You have to talk to them and show them why, you know, where the value is today and where it was in 2022.
And I mean, I had a conversation with some people last week, and they want X. And I’m like, well, you’re not getting X. I mean, maybe you should stay for another year or two, right?
So, it’s all about educating people. I mean, in trying to get them to understand that it’s a commodity. And emotionally, yes, we completely understand, especially for people that have been in houses for, you know, 30, 40, 50 years, and, you know, have family ties and whatnot.
It’s very emotional. But you try to educate people as best you can. And, you know, tell them what they should hear, not what they want to hear.
A lot of agents will say anything to get the listing, and they’ll say, oh, yeah, your place is worth 2 million when it’s worth 1.3. And, you know, it’ll sit. I mean, you just don’t want that. I mean, there’s a property in our area that’s been on and off the market now for, I mean, one of many that has been on and off the market now for months, and it’s been all over the place.
They’re getting poor advice, and they’re not even, obviously not using local agents. I don’t even know who the agents are that they’re using. They’ve gone through two or three agents.
But I mean, it’s just, it’s laughable. I mean, I don’t even know who’s showing the property, because you can tell that the pricing’s off. It’s an unrealistic seller.
So why would you waste your time, right?
Jeffrey
Yeah. And, you know, that’s kind of a challenge at the top end of the market. So usually those are the ones which are, I don’t want to say usually, but often those ones which have got, you know, days on market over whatever, 50, 60, 100 days, that you can tell, you know, for some portion of those sellers, they would be much better served with someone who’s got more local knowledge.
But again, like you said, if somebody, they purchased at the height of the market, perhaps they spent on a renovation, and you know, even at market pricing, they’re going to be underwater. Of course, you know, they’re looking to recoup their investment, and it’s just a bitter pill for someone to say, okay, well, your house is not worth X right now. So that’s, I guess, part of the emotional challenge is, obviously, as a real estate agent, it’s your job, it’s your livelihood, you want to, you know, get the work.
But on the other hand, it’s, you know, you only get repeat work when you do a good job for your clients.
Patrick
Right. Yeah, no, you’re absolutely right. And in the case in particular I just mentioned to you, these people bought a while ago.
They didn’t buy in 2022. They’re just shooting for the stars, and their house is not worth what they think it is, and their agents aren’t advising them accordingly. And maybe they have talked to, they didn’t talk to me, but maybe they’ve talked to other people who told them what the value is, and maybe they didn’t listen.
So I mean, it’s, you know, it’s a combination of, you know, agents educating their clients, but sometimes you can only do so much, right?
Jeffrey
Yeah, and that brings up an interesting question. Have you ever been with a seller, and you know, they wanted to work with you, but at a certain point have you had to part ways because they won’t take your advice, maybe they want to list at a price that’s too high?
Patrick
Oh yeah, many times. I’ve had situations where I’ve had to part ways with clients, and I’ve had situations where I wouldn’t even take the client on. I had a situation, I’m not even sure if I mentioned this to you the last time we talked, but in August of last year, I had someone who came to me and wanted to list with me, and wanted my expertise, and my visibility in the community.
But the guy wanted $3.9k for his house, and I said, your house is worth $3.4k, and he’s like, well, you know, I need $3.9k, and I’m like, yeah, well, I need 3% body fat, right? It ain’t gonna happen. I mean, I use that analogy all the time, but all joking aside, I said, I don’t want the listing.
I mean, I just, I’ll waste my time, I’ll waste my marketing, you know, it looks bad on me. And anyways, long story short, he listed with, you know, he told me a family member would take it, and the family member took it, and guess what? Still sitting there today at $3.9k. And it’s not worth $3.9k. Beautiful house, but I mean, it’s just not worth $3.9k. And that market is soft right now in Leaside, right?
Jeffrey
Yeah, yeah. And I mean, it is really tough because, you know, people think, well, put all this work into this place, and, you know, the finishes are, you know, like someone would expect, but it’s always a challenge at the top of the market. If you’re there, and you’re listing above what other similar places listed for, even if it’s very, very well done, you know, you can’t really go against the market.
Like people aren’t just going to say, well, I’ll give you the extra money, because it’s so nice if there’s other places that are the same type of value for less.
Patrick
Yeah, exactly.
Jeffrey
So switching gears a little bit, we’re obviously into the spring market now. And like you said, probably started out a bit slow. Do you have any ideas or forecasts?
Have you repaired your broken crystal ball for this spring market?
Patrick
Yeah, exactly. My crystal ball has been shattered since COVID. But I mean, just based on the first couple of weeks into our market, I mean, you start sort of second, third week of January, and we’re early in the market.
There’s some very positive signs, but there’s also some weird stuff. So I mean, my gut, I mean, I talked with some people last week, they have a, you know, a high $3 million house. And I’m like, you know, they need a week or two to get ready.
Then we’re into family day, then there’s two weeks, and it’s March break. And I’m saying, you know, maybe you might want to wait till March break, because you’re going to lose a couple of weeks in terms of timing. And those homes take two, four weeks to sell.
So you don’t want to get stale on the market. My gut tells me, based on everything I’m seeing right now, based on the call for an election, which will be coming tomorrow provincially, we already know it’s a foregone conclusion, you know, based on a lot of stuff. I think maybe our spring market may be a little later to start this year.
I think, which I don’t like, I mean, I always look forward to, you know, coming back from holidays and getting right back into it in January, February, leading up to March break. But I think that we’re going to start a little later this year. I think people again, there’s some uncertainty.
But I think the people that are out there right now, they’re smart. I mean, you should be, if you’re looking, and if you want to sell, I mean, there’s not a lot of good stuff on the market, you should be selling now. People are buying, there are some, there are buyers out there, we’re seeing it.
I have an offer on one of my listings right now, came in this morning. So stuff is selling. So I mean, my thought is, is that could be a little bit of a later spring market start.
But then all of a sudden, I hope that doesn’t translate into, well, from a selling standpoint, anyways, a lot more product, which means competition for sellers, which maybe could be good for buyers. But right now, I mean, I think it’s a good time to get out there. And you know, the smart people are out there and they’re listing and they’re buying.
Jeffrey
Yeah, that’s a really good point is some of the activity we’ve seen in the market is almost like what’s called the herd effect, where people look and they see down the street that someone is listing, they say, oh, I better get mine on the market. And like you said, from a seller’s point of view, right now, it’s a little quiet, maybe it’s a great time, you’ll get more attention. If you’re priced to sell, you’re not way above what the market would demand.
And I know that people think, well, you know, the spring market always brings a price increase, so maybe I’ll list towards the end of the spring market. Again, you know, risky strategy. If you really want to sell, if you’re serious about it, maybe those extra few grand aren’t going to make a difference.
And it might mean that your place is languishing on the market for a couple of months.
Patrick
Well, you’re absolutely right. I mean, and look what happened last year. I mean, it is a very risky strategy because, I mean, normally our spring market goes through until, I mean, I start to get nervous around the beginning of June, mid-June, but we fizzled out late May last year, which was really earlier.
I mean, and we started, we went into a lull. June was, you know, people that came to me in the end of May to list, it was like, I didn’t realize it at the time, but all of a sudden when mid-June hit, I was like, oh crap, we started, the signs were there at the end of May that we were starting to quiet. And normally that doesn’t happen until mid-June.
And then we had a, you know, very quiet summer, which is normal. And then fall was like all over the map. Started out crazy, slowed for a week or two, ended crazy, right?
So yeah, it’s a, timing the market is, you know, get in, it’s spring, it’s time to sell. I mean, you would never know it by looking outside, but get your house on the market. There’s buyers out there.
I wouldn’t, I’m not concerned about the Trump effect from a housing standpoint. I’m not concerned about the provincial election. Rates are coming down again, January 29th.
I mean, I just, again, this isn’t just me being a realtor speaking up my business. I mean, I’m a realist, right?
Jeffrey
Yeah, absolutely. And like you said, it’s almost what the financial advisors say about the stock market. It’s not timing the market, it’s time in the market.
And the, you know, the kind of, if you’re able to kind of make a plan and get in, and like we talked about, try to take some of the emotion out of it. You know, what’s in the past is in the past. Then that’s kind of the way that unfortunately you have to do this is really start to think about it as very, very long term and not sort of get too kind of bound up on a week or two or a point or two.
So. Exactly, exactly. Before I let you go, is there anything else you’d like to share with us?
Patrick
No, I mean, I’m looking forward to it. I think it’s going to be a great year. I think we’ve got to get by a few little uncertainties.
Like I said, more federally than provincially. I think rates are coming down. You know, I think prices are stable presently.
I mean, I think it’s a good time to sell, good time to buy. I think it’s going to be a good year. I really do.
Jeffrey
All right. With that, Patrick, maybe you could tell us how people can get a hold of you.
Patrick
Yeah, absolutely. I can be reached anytime through my office. I’m located here in Leaside at 103 Vanderhoof Avenue.
My phone number is 416-322-8000. If I’m not here to leave voicemail, I get right back to you. You can reach me directly on email, which is probably best.
My email is mail@patrickrocca.com. I would love to chat to anybody if they would like to talk about the market and or opinion of value on their house or my thoughts, even if they’re a year or two away. I’d love to chat.
Jeffrey
I can definitely vouch for the fact that Patrick gets back to people on email very quickly. It seems almost 24 hours a day I can get a response very quickly from you.
Patrick
Yeah, I’m a little anal that way.
Jeffrey
Well, you are committed, so that’s fantastic. Well, it’s been a pleasure as always to talk, Patrick, and I look forward to our next chat.
Patrick
Absolutely. Thank you, Jeffrey, and have a great day.