PATRICK ROCCA Broker

PATRICK ROCCA Broker

News: Incite Nov 26 2020 What does the Toronto Real Estate Market Look Like for 2021?

Patrick Rocca- What does the Toronto Real Estate Market Look Like for 2021?

As we go into another lockdown in November 2020, Patrick Rocca takes us through the ups and downs of the Toronto Real Estate Market during the pandemic and some thoughts on what the 2021 spring real estate market could look like.

Incited.ca · PatrickRocca- What does the Toronto Real Estate Market Look Like for 2021?

Speaker 1 :

I’m here again with Patrick Rocca who’s with Bosley real estate. And before we get into our discussion, I’ll just let Patrick introduce himself and tell us a little bit about what he does.

Speaker 2 :

Hey, good morning, Jeff. It’s Patrick Rocca from Bosley real estate here in Leaside Davisville one of the top agents in the area. I’ve been doing this for 27 years. Actually I’ll just give a little shout out to our new office move. We used to be a Merton street. We just moved in the last month over to a 103 Vanderhoof Avenue to a really fancy upscale office. It’s high-tech very high tech

Speaker 1 :

And high-tech is one of the things that we’ve been seeing a lot of this year, especially as people are working remotely due to the pandemic. And before we we got on air, we were just talking about every time we chat, it seems like we are always saying, we’ve never seen this before for the past three or four years. And this year has definitely been one of the ones we’ve never seen before.

Speaker 2 :

Yeah, that’s, that’s an understatement. I would think it’s been a, it’s been a crazy year. I mean, it’s, it’s, it’s, you know, one day you don’t know what the next day brings and then all of a sudden things are rolling and you’re thinking we’re back and now look where we are right now. It’s just, it’s, it’s been all over the map. Very, very, very intriguing, emotional frustrating. You know, just illogical. I mean, I’ve used that word before. It’s just, it’s it’s been weird. Very weird.

Speaker 1:

Yeah. And we’ve seen the Toronto housing market go up and down over probably the past five, five to probably 10 years in terms of things like supply and multiple offers, but a year ago, no one could have predicted a pandemic and the results that would have had at least short term on the housing market. Maybe you could talk a little bit about the single family homes market and then we’ll get into condos.

Speaker 2:

Sure. Yeah, no, I mean, you said a year ago, we couldn’t predict, I mean, eight months ago, we couldn’t predict. I mean, if you would’ve told me in February where we would have been in April, it was just it’s mind boggling. I mean, w it’s been, as you know, just to give you a sort of synopsis on the year, it’s been an interesting year. We started okaying busters. As I’ve said before in our chats COVID came around March 13th and it went downhill very quickly. We started opening up slightly in may and things started to open up and things started to roll again. And then through June, July, August that 10% in value loss that we lost in the time of the pandemic, we gained it back and more so that’s where we are at today. I mean, we have had an unbelievable run.

Speaker 2:

We are still seeing multiple offers. Again, quite a logical very much like the stock market, as I’ve said. And you know, how, you know, it’s been crazy. I mean, I sold a house a couple of weeks ago and Lisa had highest price in Leaside this year. You know, three and a half million dollar house, multiple offers 150,000 over asking. So it’s straight across the board. It’s not just the lower end stuff. The lower end stuff is still, you know, crazy. But the higher end stuff that’s priced, right. That’s marketed properly. And that’s good. A good home is still selling.

Speaker 1:

Yeah. And it’s like you said, it’s strange to imagine, you know, looking at back to sort of February, March and thinking, you know, how could the real estate market actually be up year over year, you know, eight months after this thing started, but you know, like the stock market, I think that folks are maybe taking a very long-term approach to this. And, you know, we’ve seen over the past five, seven years that if you are in the real estate market and you’ve got a short-term horizon, you could really get rocked by these ups and downs.

Speaker 2:

Yup. A hundred percent. I mean, most of the people I’m talking to now are, I’m saying the same thing too. I mean, especially in the condo market, which we’ll address later, but if you’re in a long-term, you’re fine. If you’re, if you’re looking to flip, I mean but I’m still seeing the speculators out there. I’ve, I’ve sold a couple of speculated properties in the, in the past few months, one just last week. So speculators are still out there. And you know, to me, I mean, I’ve noticed in the last couple of weeks that we’ve had a bit of a slowdown, I mean, you know, as you said, supply and demand, we have all year been lacking supply and, you know, and there has been demand even after the pen Deming sort of cool down, relatively speaking. And I just know last couple of weeks, I noticed it again.

Speaker 2:

I’m not sure if it’s buyer fatigue, I’m not sure if it’s the seasonal thing. Because we normally quiet down this time of year anyways, heading into the Christmas season, but that being said, we’re now in the lockdown. So I can’t say, and this is what concerns me. I can’t say that, you know, we’re slowing down because of, you know, it’s the time of year or because of the lockdown or because of both. And I think that the new year will really tell the tale. And again, I’m always a glass half full type of guy, but I, I was as nervous as I was about to fall. I’m nervous about the spring because I don’t know. I mean, it’s, again, it’s one of those get don’t know.

Speaker 2:

Yeah. And like you said, it will really depend on the results of what happens coming out of this lockdown. When we first went through this in the spring, folks really didn’t have an idea about what the protocols were for doing, you know, viewings and, and how to actually make offers even sight unseen, you know, with, with just a virtual or, or the technology approach. Is there anything that you’ve seen in the minds of buyers and sellers that have changed over the past eight months?

Speaker 2:

Well, I mean, yeah, I mean, and it changed very quickly. As soon as we started coming out of this, I mean the whole virtual thing the whole, you know, in person things not really happening anymore, aside from if you’re taking a buyer into a property we’re not doing offers in person. I, I, I haven’t done an offer in person in my boardroom since February. You know, kind of don’t mind it. It’s, it’s, it’s nice. It’s online, it’s simple, it’s seamless everything via email, it takes up that human element, unfortunately, which sometimes comes into play. But you know, we’re, we’re still at a point where we’re trying to limit the interaction and the open houses, even though they did open up for a very short period of time in some, you know, I’m not going to say stupid agents, but I’m going to say you know, people that maybe weren’t respecting the communities were doing them. Because I still don’t think from a health standpoint that that’s that was a safe way to go, but now that’s shut down. So, I mean, it’s, I think it changed quickly. We pivot it really quickly. And it’s, it’s been a real interesting thing. It’s been, it’s been a real life lesson in a learning experience. And it’s, you know, like I said, I didn’t know what zoom was in February. Now. I have a zoom at one o’clock in a zoom at three o’clock today. So

Speaker 1:

Yeah, we’ve quickly adapted to this new use of technology. And it’s, it’s interesting in my neighborhood, which is the Davisville village area. I’ve noticed that there were a few properties sort of over the summer that sold extremely quickly, but there’s a couple of which have been on the market for, it seems like over a month now, which is pretty rare for this, this area. And I’m just wondering if folks have kind of overstepped a little bit and said, you know, I’m going to really price for my ideal scenario and, you know, if it doesn’t sell, I’m just going to continue to keep it listed. Have you seen any of that mismatch between what the sellers are asking and what the buyers are offering?

Speaker 2:

I think you see that in any market you’re you see unreasonable sellers and you see unreasonable buyers in, in any market and, you know, and right now in your, in your market and our markets the Davisville market, there’s 29 listings. And out of those 29, I mean, you know, a lot of them and I would say half of them are over one more than half of them are over 1.5. But there are close to half of them over two. So I mean, but those still should be selling. There is a few and I’m not going to name addresses, but have been sitting are overpriced or unrealistic. And as I said that in any market, it doesn’t matter whether it’s in a, in a COVID market or, or a, in a booming market. If you, if you don’t price your property properly, it’s not going to sell. So, I mean, I, you know, I, I have many times, and I think I may have mentioned this in our last chat have walked away from listings because the seller is not reasonable. Why would I take it and waste my money and, you know, and sit on it and it just looks bad on everybody, right?

Speaker 1:

Yeah. Yeah. It’s, it’s actually a really good lesson for sellers. Not to get carried away with the enthusiasm, with some of the articles that they’re reading or, or looking at stats, every one of these properties is an individual. And you can’t say that it’s going to be, you know, exactly what the meeting is for that neighborhood, because all the buyers are looking at it in the same context, but, you know, it depends on the scenario. And right now I think that people are getting a little bit more hesitant. I think that after the spring, into the summer, people thought, you know, we’ve beaten this thing now it’s back. And I think people are scratching their heads a little bit more.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, you’re a hundred percent, right. I mean, it goes, and it goes back to the, the buyer fatigue. And there’s always, there’s always people that are looking for the deal. And, you know, I have a listing right now and, you know, I got an offer on it. I’ve been working on it for a couple of days and it’s not directly in this market. It’s in North York, but you know, I’ve got an offer on it. It’s, it’s very workable. And you know, I’ve got two other people that are saying, you know, throwing out a number to me that I’m like, where are you getting this? This house has been on the market for two weeks. And I’ve already got an offer much more than what you’re talking about verbally. Like, I mean, there’s people out there, I don’t know what they think because we’re in a shutdown and because it’s heading into December and you know, there’s always people in December looking for a bargain, but now you throw in a lockdown, right. Again, you gotta be realistic, right. On the other hand, your sellers have to be realistic because, you know, I’ve had this conversation with many sellers, you know, you’re looking at, you know, your, your $2 million house and, you know, you got a $2 million offer. And the seller’s like, well, no, I want it to one. And I’m like, yeah, but you know what? You might be one nine in January.

Speaker 2:

You got, it goes both ways, right?

Speaker 1:

Yeah, yeah, exactly. And, you know, if I would say that’s a good that’s good advice. If you have an offer, you know, these days take a good offer if it’s within your range, because, you know, it’s, it’s even more uncertain than in what we call quote unquote normal times.

Speaker 2 :

Yeah. Yeah. And especially now into a lockdown, if you’ve got a good offer obviously deposits are really key in this, in this market. I mean the bigger, the deposit, the better, because if something goes wrong for closing, at least you have something as a backdrop, but yeah, you’re, you’re right. I mean, it’s, it’s, you have to sort of, you know, be realistic and if you’re not realistic, you know, it’s, it doesn’t make sense right

Speaker 1 :

Now, shifting gears to the condo market, we’ve seen a decline in prices and, you know, there’s a lot of theories why that is whether it’s, you know, the, the lack of short-term rentals and, you know, investors kind of taking those off the market and then trying to flood the market with these potential condo listings, along with everybody else. Have you been seeing a lot of activity in the condo market, especially around some of the larger location, which had a lot of these short-term rentals?

Speaker 2:

Well, if you want to talk about downtown, I mean, which I think we’ve talked about before, it’s gotten worse than, than our chat a couple of months ago. I mean, it’s a disaster. I mean, it’s, it’s worse than it’s been for over 15 years. Prices are down significantly right now. I think the last time we talked to her 6,000, some rentals downtown South of Lord is over 9,000 now. Yeah, it’s crazy. And again, this goes back and I don’t think that’s going to get any better. I mean, quite frankly, as we get into the new year and with lockdowns and the condo market, the condo market could be a good play. Come January, March, if you’re longterm. And I had that conversation with a client last week, I said, if you can afford it and you can live in it, and if you don’t have to rent it, you could be in for a good play because if we can get through this and we can get through to the spring and hopefully get a vaccine, which in my opinion is not happening anytime soon in Canada.

Speaker 2:

I mean, we’ll be lucky you and me as an individual, as opposed to healthcare and people that are, you know, that, that need it. We’re not gonna see anything until, you know, late next year, but if you can get through this, I mean, and then the border opens up and then all these other things happen. The conduct will be a good play. But it’s a disaster right now, downtown in our area, if it’s a disaster too. I mean, but there’s, as we said before, there’s, there’s a few factors in play there. I mean, you have the, the speculators because, you know, Yonge Eglinton is a big spectrum, the market, there’s a lot of towers and more to come. And you throw in the shelter that the city dumped on it back in April and that’s gone really bad. I mean, so from a Realty resale perspective right now in young and Eglinton, there’s 200 condos for sale.

Speaker 2:

There’s 400 for rent. Lisa is not as bad, but the, the, the young Eglinton area is really, it’s when I say young, I’m talking young Eglinton. I mean, it’s a real small pocket where it’s bad because of, you know, the speculative market and because of the shelter, as I said, I mean, I had a condo, I had a condo I sold there about a month ago. It went fairly quickly. Thank God I had another one. I just listed. I won’t say exactly where it was, but in the area. And we couldn’t get a nibble. And, you know, the, the day I went to list the place I pulled into a green pea and there was two guys shooting up in the green pea and I pulled out and parks results. And then within the following three weeks, as I had the listing, there was three, two overdoses in three weeks immediately by this listing I had.

Speaker 2:

So, I mean, he was buying a condo there. Right. And, and, you know, and, and the city goes on and by saying, well, crime’s only up a bit. And the counselor puts them in a real nice spin on it, which is ridiculous. You know, cause residents know what’s going on. I mean, I’m seeing values drop, I’m seeing it. I mean, and it’s yes. Is it, is it a speculative thing partially? But young Eglinton doesn’t have the supply and the amount of buildings that downtown has. So it’s, it’s, it’s a mix of that. And the crime in the area and in the crime is related to the shelter and it’s, you know, the drug use of the assaults and the robberies, you know, it’s so it’s, there’s a lot in play there, unfortunately. And I mean, like I said, the city just did a bad job of, of putting in place a shelter.

Speaker 2:

I mean, the shelter is required. It’s needed. No, one’s denying that. It’s just, they had no plan and they, to this day, they’re sort of backtracking and back stepping, and you know, it’s, it’s bizarre. It’s unbelievable. There’s no, there was no mental health assistance. There’s drug assistance. There is no, it’s just let them roam. Right. And it’s unfortunate. And I just got a call from another client of mine downtown last week, who just said, I didn’t even know there was a, but it just popped up 50 feet away from my house. We never got noticed. And I’m like, Oh, good luck with that.

Speaker 1:

Yeah. And we talked earlier on another call about everybody who works from home now doesn’t go into an office, sees their 700 square foot or 600 square foot condo and says, yikes, my partner’s working from home. I’m working from home. We’re on top of each other. You know, we had just thought of this as a place that we could, you know, like sleep and maybe invest for a while until we got to the next stage. And now we’re in here 24 seven, like we’re running out of space. There’s just like demand to kind of move up.

Speaker 2:

Yeah. Well, and I mean, it’s not six I’m telling you. I wish. No, I wish. I mean, I know some people wish they had six, 700 square feet. I saw a post yesterday from someone I know you’re saying another day in my 400 square foot condo, you know what I mean? What are you doing for a hundred square feet? You can’t go out. I mean, it’s just mind-boggling so, I mean, there’s that mental issue, you know, it’s the depression and the, the whole thing that goes around that. And then you’re right. I mean, you’ve got a six, 700 square foot. Condo is two people in there and you want to move out, you want to buy something bigger, but you can’t sell your condo. Interesting article I read yesterday was saying, you know, could that affect the housing market in the new year? There’s all these people that want to get out of the condos and have their condoms on the market. The condoms aren’t selling, but they want to buy a house, but they can’t sell their condo because no one’s buying condos right now. You know? I mean, if you’re buying on spec right now, I think you’re crazy. I mean, I just, you know, there’s, there’s just so many other resale condos out there that there’s better value. And a lot of these specs, if they’re not proven, they might not even get out of the ground.

Speaker 1:

Oh yeah. And that’s another thing. I mean, pre-construction yeah. Yeah. And that’s another thing is, you know, we’ve been putting supply into the market for decades now and there, there has been healthy growth in the market. Don’t get me wrong. I’ve been looking at price appreciation. And so people who invested in condos, you know, 10, 15 years ago, and, you know, sold in the last couple of years have done very well, but it remains to be seen in the coming years, are people going to return to business travel the way they did? Are they going to be, you know, returning to tourism the way they did. And it’s, it’s quite an open question right now, whether the dynamics which were in place for an upcoming city, like Toronto are still going to be in place in, you know, two, three years.

Speaker 2:

I can’t, I’m the glass half full type of guy and I’m itching to travel myself cause I travel a lot, but I think it will. And again, I think, you know, when, and if we get over this humble means like we get the vaccine and we get her borders about, you know, in the U S gets through stuff together. I was going to say something else, but they get their stuff together. And then borders open up and I think people will travel. And, but I will, that changed out the home dynamic. I think the home dynamic has definitely changed when I go in to see people now. You know, it’s, it’s all about, you know, home gyms, it’s all about home offices. You know, if people that I’m talking to right now that are downsizing, but they need that extra, you know, the thing that they’re coming from a four plus one to say, we want to go to a three plus one because they need that home office and they don’t want to be all over each other, you know, in ground pools, pools are a big thing.

Speaker 2:

Now, people, if they can’t travel, they want to pool the other thing, that’s off the charts right now. And I talked to a friend of mine who’s in the business outdoor skating, rinks, like, you know, home rinks in your backyard. Wow. People can’t, the companies can’t keep up because it’s an outdoor activity because people can’t travel. So they need to do something from an exercise standpoint. And yeah, so I mean, the whole shift on, you know, when people want yards, they want outdoor space. So, you know, I think that could pivot in the market. I think these condos that are 400, 500 square feet that were built because the builders were, were greedy. And we’re trying to pack, you know, many sardines into a candidacy could, those could suffer.

Speaker 1:

Yeah. And it’s going to be interesting. And I know we’ll definitely chat more in the new year. We’ll talk about a few more, excuse me, a few more changes, which have come, you know, towards the the end of December as we come out of the lockout and we’ll see what effect that has on the, the spring market, which traditionally begins towards the end of January. We’ll see if it actually does start at that point.

Speaker 2:

Yeah. I, I agree. I agree with you. I’m, I’m sorry. Like I said, I’ve said it before to you. My, my crystal ball is broken. I actually threw it out. It’s we just don’t know. I, I don’t think we’re coming out of the lockdown when they say that they do. I think they’re going to keep it locked down for Christmas and through the new year. And, and you’re right. I don’t know when we’ll start out in January. I mean, I have talked to many people who are thinking of who want to list in the new year, and I’m just telling people right now, you know, we got to talk in January. Like, normally I’d be saying, let’s get you going third week of January off to the races. And I’d be planning already a schedule and photos and staging and all that sort of stuff right now. I’m saying, let’s wait until January 2nd week. And then we’ll chat. I’ll tell you where it is. I think we’re at, because until we know what this lockdown and numbers are we out of, are we coming out of it? I mean, I, I personally don’t think we’re gonna, I think numbers are still going to be there through the winter. It’s just inevitable. I mean, it’s winter people, you know, can’t get outside. They can’t do stuff. It’s, I don’t know. I’m hoping for the best.

Speaker 1:

Yup. Yeah. You’re, you’re definitely a glass half full type of guy. And, and I know we’ve all thrown out our crystal balls and replaced them with the zoom calls. But if, if folks do want to get some input on the current situation and, you know, find out about their options, what’s the best way to get a hold of you?

Speaker 2:

Best way to get a hold of me is through my office, you can call me (416) 322-8000. If I’m not here, I have voicemail and I returned my calls immediately. Email is probably the best it’s email, mail@patrickrocca.com. And yeah, I’m happy to talk to anybody about any questions they have about the markets and moving forward and my thoughts as well.

Speaker 1:

Well, that’s great. And going into your 28th year, this year coming up we’ll we’ll yeah, I know. We’re only looking up from here. Let’s cross fingers.

Speaker 2:

Yeah. I mean, let’s not, I mean, I can’t complain. I mean, it’s been, it’s been a good year. I mean, when you look back on it and where were we where we thought, or where I thought I may be at the end of the year. I mean, all things being equal, it’s been good. My family’s healthy. So you, listen, you can’t complain. Right?

Speaker 1:

Exactly. So it’s always a pleasure talking. We will definitely talk again and stay safe.

Speaker 2:

Same to you, Jeff and happy holidays. Happy holidays to you too. Thank you

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